The Windy City Trader
August futures stayed in the recent trading range last week, holding just above $1478 and failing just below $1515. If $1520 is beaten we are likely to see one more shot at $1550 which may be it for a while. We have not seen a new high since April despite many attempts and the chart pattern has turned negative as well, indicating that gold is not the fund darling it was just a few months ago. Short term a rise past $1520 probably takes August gold to $1550 and a drop through $1477 probably takes it to $1446 - $1450.Silver: September silver twice came down to the long time $33 support last week and it too was saved from further declines by the Greece solution. We have rebounded back over $35 and it will probably take aim at the resistance near $36.50. As with gold, the technical pattern has turned negative here also and we would need a close above $36.50 for much more on top. Not much more though, perhaps to $38.50 - $39.00 as that is the extreme top of the last two month range. If $33.00 is broken we could see additional weakness to $30 in short order. was looking to consider buying copper again later this summer but apparently the perception was that they are already based on recent price action. I would expect a bit more strength to the 445 - 450 area before reality sets in. I would be on the alert and I believe a sell near 450 could pay off nicely.
Currencies and Financials: After the bailout announcement last week, most currencies rose as the US Dollar slipped but this group seems to be the first to realize that putting a butterfly bandage on a severed artery will not hold for long. The Swiss, Euro and Yen are sliding back after the initial rally as the US Dollar has stabilized.
British Pound: The September Pound held fast at 15900 twice last week and is trying to test the first resistance at 161.50. I would watch that level and if tested, but not bested, I would be a seller. Even if 16150 is beaten there would be little upside and an extreme move might take it to 16250. Down below 15900 is not likely to hold the next time around as the British economy is one of the few in the world now which is actually weaker than the US so they are in no position attempt to strengthen the Pound.
Swiss Franc: The September Swiss seems to have emerged as the flight to quality currency. As most others have been hit hard from time to time, the Swiss kind of weathers the storm and before you know it, voila', here we are above 12000. Considering that 10 year highs before this year was the 10200 area and we have seen 5500 during that time, it is easy to see that this market is highly overbought. I am starting to look at some put options here. Courageous types may make out well shorting futures here but I will take the conservative route and look at puts. These were last week's words and we did buy August 11500 puts. The Swiss immediately afterwards broke from 12050 to just above the 11700 support. It has recovered to over 11800 but the technical pattern was wounded with the flush and we remain over 1800 points above formerly lifetime highs near 10200.
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We have not seen a new high since April despite many attempts and the chart pattern has turned negative as well, indicating that gold is not the fund darling it was just a few months ago. Short term a rise past $1520 probably takes August gold to $1550
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